Although South Africa remains the European Union’s (EU) largest trading partner in Africa, the country’s agri-food exports to the EU are facing growing challenges. A recent study by researchers from Stellenbosch University and Mendel University in the Czech Republic warns that trade with the EU is slowing down, mainly due to increasing non-tariff trade barriers and shifting demand patterns.
The study was conducted by Dr Melissa van der Merwe, Dr Francois Lategan, and Dr Ivo Zdráhal. It was published in the journal Agrekon and is based on two decades of data from 1999 to 2019. The researchers used the Constant Market Share (CMS) model to assess how South Africa’s competitiveness in the EU has changed over time, especially in the context of trade liberalisation and a global slowdown in agri-food value chains.
Trade Agreements No Longer Sufficient
The researchers found that while South Africa’s agri-food exports to the EU have increased over time, growth has noticeably slowed since the 2008 global financial crisis. This slowdown is linked to the long-term effects of the recession and a sharp rise in non-tariff measures (NTMs) — such as stringent food safety and quality standards — that make it more difficult for local exporters to access EU markets.
They argue that existing trade agreements, once seen as key to export growth, are no longer enough to secure long-term competitiveness for South African producers in the EU.
Horticulture is the Star Performer
The study groups South Africa’s agri-food exports into four categories: bulk commodities, processed intermediate goods (used in production), horticultural products, and consumer-ready goods. Among these, horticulture stands out as the leading category. Citrus, grapes, wine, apples and pears, and avocados are the top five agri-food exports to the EU.
Horticultural exports rose from 58% of all agri-food exports in 1999 to more than 65% by 2019, according to Eurostat data. Wine is the most significant export in the consumer-ready category. In terms of what the EU imports overall, processed intermediate goods and horticultural products each account for about 15%.
EU Market is Shifting
The EU’s agri-food imports are not evenly spread. Central European countries receive nearly half of total imports, while Northern and Southern EU countries each take in about 20%. Eastern Europe, though still the smallest market, is growing.
However, the study notes that growth in agri-food imports has slowed in many regions. In the decade following the 2008 crisis, growth in Eastern Europe fell from 6.5% to 3.5% per year. In Southern Europe, it dropped from 6.3% to 2.6%. Central and Northern Europe show more stability, but even there, growth has plateaued.
What Should SA Do Next?
The researchers recommend a strategic shift. South Africa should prioritise exporting agri-food products with rising demand, especially horticultural goods. It should also target fast-growing EU markets such as parts of Eastern Europe.
Crucially, the country needs to invest in domestic infrastructure — including container ports and reliable electricity — to reduce transaction costs and improve competitiveness. These improvements would help local producers compete more effectively with heavily subsidised EU farmers.
In addition, South Africa should actively engage in discussions with EU partners to revisit non-tariff trade barriers and resolve disputes that limit market access. Helping local exporters adapt to strict EU regulations is also essential.
Looking Beyond the EU
While the EU remains South Africa’s most valuable trade partner, the researchers stress the importance of expanding into fast-growing markets outside of Europe. These include BRICS countries, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and others. By identifying and targeting these markets, South Africa can reduce its over-reliance on the EU and find new opportunities for its agri-food exports.
A Wake-Up Call for Policymakers
The researchers emphasise that strong agri-food exports bring major development benefits — including job creation, technology adoption, and improved market access. They hope their findings will help the agricultural sector and government policymakers understand South Africa’s competitive position and take strategic action to improve it.