The citrus industry is a cornerstone of South Africa’s agricultural exports, accounting for 54% of the country’s total fruit shipments. Citrus fruits are key contributors to the economy, with 81% of the total production value derived from exports, and oranges making up 70% of the volume.
In his latest report, Justin Chadwick, CEO of the South African Citrus Growers Association (CGA), shared insights into the current season, which has been shaped by unexpected weather events and fluctuating market conditions. Although the 2024 season has seen some recovery in late-season exports, total production is predicted to fall short of initial estimates.
2024 Season Overview
The 2024 citrus season has been a challenging one for South African growers. After several downward revisions to export volumes early in the season, Chadwick’s September 13 report indicated that upward revisions were made later due to favourable market conditions. However, final figures remain below initial projections. The CGA’s latest data shows that by the end of week 36, South Africa had packed 155.6 million 15kg cartons and shipped 133.3 million. The current forecast for the total season’s production stands at 165.5 million cartons, a reduction from the original estimate of 181.7 million.
Chadwick highlighted the influence of unpredictable weather, including drought, floods, and wind damage, which resulted in smaller fruit sizes and a decline in export volumes. Local demand for juicing, driven by a favourable price, further impacted export figures.
Key Challenges
Despite an absence of significant port delays, Chadwick identified port and rail logistics as critical areas requiring improvement to handle future growth. With projections indicating an increase in citrus production over the next decade, efficient logistics will be vital for converting increased output into foreign revenue and job creation.
Additionally, international trade disputes continue to pose a challenge. Spain has called for a ban on South African citrus due to concerns about black spot disease (CBS), which South African authorities have contested at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Chadwick emphasized that South Africa’s CBS management systems are stringent, with treatments, monitoring, and inspections in place to prevent shipments of infected fruit. He also questioned the EU’s scientific justification for trade restrictions, asserting that fruit is not a pathway for CBS.
Opportunities in Asian Markets
Looking to the future, Chadwick highlighted growth opportunities in the Asian market, particularly China, which receives 8-10% of South Africa’s citrus exports. While South Africa faces competitive disadvantages due to import duties, ongoing negotiations and revisions to export protocols have improved market access. Chadwick noted the importance of continued engagement with China to further ease trade restrictions.
Industry Projections
Chadwick remains optimistic about the future, forecasting substantial growth for the citrus industry over the next decade. With new plantings set to bear fruit, South African citrus production is expected to rise significantly. He predicted that if logistical challenges are addressed and trade restrictions with the EU are resolved, the industry could see exports grow by an additional 100 million cartons by 2032. Within the next five years, Chadwick expects export volumes to exceed 200 million cartons, creating thousands of new jobs in the process.
In conclusion, while the 2024 citrus season has been fraught with challenges, Chadwick remains positive about the sector’s potential for long-term growth, provided that key issues are addressed collaboratively by all industry stakeholders.