The South African stone fruit industry has entered the 2026/2027 export season with a mixed outlook, characterized by an earlier-than-usual harvest and shifting crop volumes across categories.
According to the official export estimate issued by industry body Hortgro on 26 October 2026, overall stone fruit export volumes are projected to decline by 3% compared to the previous season.
Weather and Production Outlook
The season started earlier than last year following a relatively dry winter, though significant rainfall and storm activity in May improved water availability across several key Western Cape production areas. Fruit development is progressing noticeably earlier than usual, with early-season fruit expected to ripen about two weeks ahead of a typical season. Hortgro noted that this earlier timing will require close coordination across harvesting, packing, and export logistics.
Hectare Trends and Category Figures
Data from the 2025 Tree Census shows mixed trends in planted area over the five-year period from 2020 to 2025. While planted area influences long-term potential, actual export volumes continue to be shaped by orchard age, yields, fruit set, weather conditions, and the proportion of fruit meeting export specifications.
Nectarines: Nectarine hectares rose by 28% between 2020 and 2025, with the largest expansion occurring between 2021 and 2022. This increase in planted area has contributed to significant growth, with nectarine exports estimated at 13.81 million 2.5 kg equivalent cartons—up 9% from 12.62 million in 2025/2026.
Apricots: Fresh apricot hectares remained relatively stable over five years, declining by 4%. Exports are estimated at 766,000 4.75 kg equivalent cartons, up 2% from 750,000 in 2025/2026.
Peaches: Dessert peach hectares fell by 22% over five years. Peach exports are forecast at 2.48 million 2.5 kg equivalent cartons, down 7% from 2.66 million in 2025/2026.
Plums: Plum hectares fell by 8% over five years. Plum exports are projected at 14.58 million 5.25 kg equivalent cartons, down 8% from 15.85 million in 2025/2026.
Logistics and Market Environment
The performance of the Port of Cape Town remains a primary concern for the upcoming export season. Hortgro and industry stakeholders confirmed they will closely monitor port operations, vessel schedules, congestion, and shipment delays, as disruptions affect fruit quality and arrival times.
Additionally, the Middle East is expected to pose a significant challenge this season due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and potential disruptions to shipping routes and trade flows. Hortgro confirmed it will continue to monitor these developments and keep the industry informed as the season progresses.
Early Harvest, High Quality: Navigating Tru-Cape’s Unique Cherry Season