The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has revised its export estimates, predicting a 4% decline in lemon shipments for 2024. This adjustment follows a 19% drop in orange exports announced the previous week, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by the citrus industry.
Several factors have contributed to the reduction in lemon exports. Strong winds and flooding in major producing areas have significantly impacted production. Additionally, drier weather conditions have resulted in smaller fruit sizes. Another contributing factor is the attractive local juicing prices, which have diverted some of the produce away from export markets.
The CGA’s Lemon Focus Group noted that while some regions have completed their packing, the remaining harvesting areas are experiencing an unusually challenging season. Initial projections had estimated lemon volumes at 37.9 million 15kg cartons. However, the latest adjustment has brought the estimate down to 33.9 million cartons. This is a notable decrease from the 35.6 million cartons exported last year.
“While there was an initial concern that there might be an oversupply of lemons, this is not the case anymore. Supply will be relatively stable, and the demand, especially in Europe, looks good,” stated Leroux Venter, Chairman of the Lemon Focus Group.
The most significant reductions in lemon exports were reported by the Sundays River Valley and the Western Cape, with adjustments down by almost 1 million and 100,000 cartons, respectively.
Orange Exports Also Hit Hard
The CGA’s Orange Focus Group has projected a substantial 19% drop in South African Navel orange exports for 2024, estimating shipments to reach only 21 million cartons. This adjustment reflects the ongoing impact of extreme weather events in key producing areas, which have severely disrupted production.
“Inclement weather over the past two weeks has meant further reduction in predicted volumes,” said Stiaan Engelbrecht, Chairman of the Orange Focus Group. The season-opening estimate of 25.7 million cartons in May was initially reduced to 22 million cartons, and recent assessments have further lowered this to 21 million cartons. Currently, late Navels are being packed and shipped.
Valencia orange volumes have also been revised downward, now projected to reach 51.6 million cartons, down from the May forecast of 56 million and April’s estimate of 58 million. This marks an 11% reduction from the initial forecast. The largest downward adjustments have come from Letsitele, Hoedspruit, and the Senwes areas, with additional reductions in Marble Hall and Groblersdal due to recent frost damage.
Despite these challenges, Jan-Louis Pretorius, Vice Chairman of the CGA and a citrus grower in Limpopo, expressed a positive outlook. He noted that the market is looking balanced, with no risk of the oversupply initially feared.
Citrusdal Floods Impact Citrus Farming
Citrusdal, a town in the Western Cape, has recently suffered severe flooding, causing significant structural damage to farming communities. Citrus farming, the town’s main economic activity, has been heavily affected.
Authorities have warned that the damages from the floods could exceed the 430 million rands ($23.16 million) caused by the previous year’s floods. Despite the challenging situation, export oranges have begun moving out of Citrusdal through a private bridge on a citrus farm after the area was cut off.
A provincial disaster was declared following the severe rainfall two weeks ago, but the Port of Cape Town is now back to efficient operation, aiding in the movement of citrus exports.
The ongoing weather-related challenges have underscored the resilience of the citrus industry in Southern Africa. Both lemon and orange producers continue to adapt to changing conditions, striving to meet global demand while navigating the obstacles posed by extreme weather events.