South Africa’s wheat industry is spiralling into a deepening crisis, but the real threat, according to Grain SA, is not just the price of grain—it’s the profound uncertainty caused by over a year of governmental inaction on crucial tariff reform.
Serious questions are now emerging from the sector as producers face escalating financial pressure, caught between rising input costs and sharply declining international wheat prices. Grain SA leaders warn that this prolonged delay in reaching a decision on the necessary tariff adjustments—coupled with market behaviour that benefits importers—suggests a lack of commitment to safeguarding the nation’s wheat supply.
A Crisis of Policy Paralysis
The call for structural change is not new. In June 2024, Grain SA and the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (SACOTA) formally applied for a review of the import tariff to stabilize the industry. Yet, over 18 months later, the sector is still waiting for a final ruling.
“The issue is not today’s price alone,” industry representatives warn. “It is whether South Africa intends to maintain a viable wheat industry. Without urgent support, the long-term risks to food security and consumer stability are serious”.
Foreign Imports Undercutting Local Harvest
The regulatory vacuum is allowing market dynamics to actively undermine local growers. Grain SA points out that while South Africa remains structurally a net importer, the timing of imports is devastating. Most local wheat is harvested between October and December. However, imports consistently peak from August to late October, “flooding the market just ahead of harvest and undermining producer prices”.
This trend of elevated import volumes during the pre-harvest window is a major factor in suppressing domestic prices.
The Western Cape Paradox
The largest dryland wheat-producing region, the Western Cape, perfectly illustrates this market distortion. Even as provincial wheat production has increased, imports through the Cape Town Harbour have also risen. Figures show that in most seasons, Western Cape producer deliveries far exceed local processing requirements, yet imports continue to flow in, often during harvest months.
Separating Wheat Prices from Bread Prices
A critical part of Grain SA’s campaign is to dispel the notion that supporting local farmers directly leads to higher consumer bread prices.
Sector analysts note that retail bread prices have shown little correlation with wheat price movements in recent years. The price of raw wheat has fallen sharply since 2022, yet bread prices have continued their steady upward climb. This evidence strongly suggests that adjusting the wheat tariff to provide necessary protection for local farmers would have minimal, if any, negative impact on consumers.
If structural reform is delayed further, Grain SA warns that South Africa’s increasing reliance on imported wheat—often from markets subsidised by foreign governments—will leave consumers “fully dependent on the global market” and dangerously exposed to external price and supply shocks. The commitment to local food security, they argue, must be proven with decisive action now.