South Africa’s 2025/26 table grape season has entered a decisive early phase, with production volumes building steadily while export logistics continue to lag behind inspections. Industry data to Week 50 confirms a season that is broadly on track in the vineyards, but increasingly under strain at the ports.
Inspections Up, Exports Behind
By the end of Week 50, 13.34 million cartons of table grapes had been inspected for export — a 21% increase on the same time last season. In contrast, only 4.79 million cartons had departed South African ports by that point, representing a 39% decline year on year.
This widening gap between inspected and exported volumes is not a demand-side issue. Instead, it reflects shipping delays and congestion, particularly at the Port of Cape Town. Encouragingly, an additional 3.28 million cartons shipped in Week 51, lifting total volumes shipped to approximately 8.1 million cartons, but inventory pressure remains a concern.
Crop Outlook Remains Stable
Despite logistics challenges, the national crop estimate remains unchanged at 79.4 million cartons, with all regions maintaining their initial forecasts. Packing activity is currently underway in the Northern Provinces, Orange River and Olifants River regions, while the Berg River and Hex River regions are set to start meaningful volumes from Week 52.
Early-season performance suggests good fruit quality across regions, supported by generally favourable growing conditions. Weather remains the key watch point as more mid- and late-season cultivars enter the supply chain.
Regional Momentum Builds
The Orange River region continues to dominate volumes, with 9.96 million cartons packed to Week 50 — up 24% year on year. Prime, Midnight Beauty® and Evans Delight remain leading varieties, and several mid- to late-season cultivars are entering earlier than expected in some areas.
In the Northern Provinces, packing volumes reached 3.3 million cartons, a 13% increase on last season. Crop conditions are good, with producers reporting solid performance from mid-season varieties, though rainfall forecasts require close monitoring.
The Olifants River has seen a sharp percentage increase off a small base, while vineyards in the Berg and Hex River regions are reported to be healthy and on track as harvesting begins.
Port Performance Improving — but Risk Persists
Weather-related disruptions at the Port of Cape Town eased in Week 50, with wind delays reduced to 19 hours, down sharply from November’s extreme levels. Vessel backlogs and container congestion have also improved, easing short-term pressure.
However, cumulative wind delays for December have already exceeded last year’s total, underlining the fragility of port performance during peak export periods. Productivity improvements have been noted, but still remain below optimal targets.
Strategic Logistics Decisions Loom
With inspections already outpacing exports early in the season, industry modelling warns of inventory build-ups over the next two to three weeks if disruptions persist. Diversion of volumes to Durban and Eastern Cape ports is emerging as a critical mitigation strategy, particularly for northern production regions.
The early message of the season is clear: vineyards are delivering, but logistics will determine outcomes. How effectively exporters adapt routing decisions and port utilisation over the coming weeks will shape market performance well beyond the festive period.