The mood in South African agriculture brightened in the final quarter of 2025, with the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) making a firm rebound. After two consecutive quarterly declines, the ACI lifted by 5 points to 67, placing it firmly above the 50-point neutral mark, which suggests that agribusinesses are generally optimistic about business conditions in the country.
The report, which reflects a survey conducted in the last week of November, pinpoints several factors driving the renewed optimism, a sentiment shared by leading experts in the sector.
Why Confidence Went Up: Weather, Exports, and FMD Hope
According to Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of Agbiz, the increase was fundamentally driven by positive production conditions and better logistics. Farmers are feeling better because of:
- Favourable weather conditions, with optimism surrounding the onset of La Niña-induced rains for the 2025/26 season.
- Strong exports thanks to bumper harvests of grains, oilseeds, and horticulture.
- Smoother operations at ports, helping to move products quickly.
- A major factor influencing sentiment was the announcement of a nationwide vaccination campaign against foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which has long threatened the livestock industry.
Farmers Are Spending and Trading More Than Ever
The underlying data confirms that this optimism is being backed by significant activity, particularly in investment and trade.
The sub-index measuring export volumes surged by 32 points to 75, a robust figure reflecting South Africa’s strong agricultural export performance throughout the year. The total value of agricultural exports for the first three quarters of 2025 hit a strong US$11.7 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year.
Furthermore, the subindex for capital investments increased by 7 points to 74. This confidence is visible on farms: cumulative tractor sales for the first 10 months of 2025 were up by 11%, while combine harvester sales rose by 8%. This indicates farmers are continuing to invest heavily in new machinery.
Not All Sectors Are Equal: The Problem with Livestock
Despite the overall lift, the recovery remains uneven, and two sub-indices declined slightly. The indicators for turnover (sales) and net operating income (profit) dipped slightly. This was primarily attributed to lower commodity prices for winter crops, even though the harvests were relatively large.
The biggest challenge remains the livestock sector. Dawie Maree, Head of Agriculture Information and Marketing at FNB, agreed that FMD had a definite “dampening effect” on the overall confidence index, echoing Mr. Sihlobo’s caution that while horticulture and field crops show better conditions, “the livestock industry is under pressure.”
What Needs to Happen Next
Both experts view the future with a mix of opportunity and necessary action. Mr. Maree highlighted that while the FMD vaccination announcement is positive, the future will “all now depend on implementation”—getting the vaccine rolled out quickly and effectively.
For long-term expansion and stability, Mr. Sihlobo also stressed that key collaborative efforts between business and government are vital. These include pushing for:
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Better management of local municipalities.
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Addressing serious issues like rural crime.
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The appropriate release of government-owned land to beneficiaries.
In conclusion, Q4 2025 marks a strong, positive close to the year for the agricultural sector, though the industry remains focused on turning the promise of FMD control and political cooperation into sustainable, sector-wide prosperity.