South Africa’s wine industry has welcomed two recent trade developments that could shape export prospects over the medium to long term, while warning that immediate commercial benefits remain limited.
The assessment comes from South Africa Wine, which briefed members on the implications of the China–Africa Economic Partnership Agreement (CAEPA) and the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) with the United States.
CAEPA: Positive Signal, Not Yet a Trade Deal
The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC) last week signed CAEPA with China, an overarching cooperation agreement intended to pave the way for duty-free access for South African exports into the Chinese market.
From the wine industry’s perspective, the agreement signals meaningful political commitment. However, South Africa Wine cautioned that CAEPA is not yet a fully operational trade agreement and does not provide immediate duty-free access.
CAEPA functions as an enabling framework rather than a binding deal. Its purpose is to provide for further negotiations and agreements to follow, before any concrete tariff benefits can be realised.
What Still Needs to Happen
Before duty-free access can be unlocked, the framework must still be converted into binding legal instruments. According to South Africa Wine, this includes clearly defining tariff treatment, market access conditions, rules of origin, customs procedures and dispute resolution mechanisms — the stage at which negotiations typically intensify.
The organisation also noted that several additional phases must be completed before CAEPA can function as a true trade agreement. These include legal formalisation, alignment with the World Trade Organization and regional frameworks, coordination among Southern African Customs Union (SACU) member states, institutional setup, standards recognition, customs implementation and private-sector activation.
Until these steps are finalised, South Africa Wine stressed that the agreement remains politically significant but commercially limited.
Government has indicated that the framework agreement will be followed by an “Early Harvest Agreement”, targeted for completion by the end of March 2026. Details on tariff lines and implementation timelines are still to be determined.
Implications for the Wine Industry
China represents significant long-term export potential for South African wine. “We have consistently raised improved market access to China as a strategic priority in our engagements with government, and we are encouraged by this important first step,” South Africa Wine said.
The organisation indicated that it will closely monitor developments, engage with government on wine-specific tariff lines and market access conditions, and provide input where required. No immediate action is required from exporters at this stage, but those with an interest in the Chinese market are encouraged to remain strategically engaged.
AGOA Extension Undermined by US Tariffs
South Africa Wine also welcomed the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) to 31 December 2026, recognising its continued importance for agricultural and wine exports to the United States.
However, the benefit of AGOA is currently being significantly undermined by additional 30% “Liberation Day” tariffs. According to South Africa Wine, these tariffs have materially reduced the effectiveness of the preference programme and placed substantial strain on exporters.
The current cost environment has threatened the commercial viability of the US market, particularly for bulk wine, where trade has effectively stalled.
Call for Urgent Engagement
South Africa Wine has called for urgent and continued high-level government engagement with the United States, in alignment with SACU partners, to address the impact of the additional tariffs, restore meaningful market access and secure greater long-term trade certainty.
While CAEPA represents a positive starting signal and AGOA’s extension provides some relief, the organisation stressed that sustained negotiation and advocacy remain essential to protect export volumes, jobs and the competitiveness of South African wine.