The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its Seasonal Climate Watch for June to October 2025, painting a complex picture for South Africa’s agricultural sector. While some regions can expect beneficial rainfall and manageable winter conditions, others face increased dryness, warmer temperatures, and risks to crops and livestock.
Climate Drivers: Neutral ENSO, Local Weather in Focus
The global El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, which is expected to continue throughout the winter. Because ENSO typically has less influence during South African winters, local and regional climate systems will primarily drive this season’s weather.
Regional Winter Outlooks
Western Cape: A Strong Start, Then a Dry Finish
The Western Cape, particularly the southwestern region, is forecast to receive above-normal rainfall during mid-winter (June to July). This will be welcomed by winter crop producers and grape growers. However, by August and into early spring, rainfall is expected to drop below normal, potentially affecting late-season irrigation and pasture conditions.
Eastern Cape: Mixed Signals, Divided Conditions
Farmers in the Eastern Cape will experience regional variation. The eastern coastal zones (like OR Tambo and Alfred Nzo districts) are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall through late winter and early spring. In contrast, inland areas may see limited rainfall, maintaining the drought stress already affecting some communities. Warm conditions may lead to reduced water availability and higher livestock care needs.
KwaZulu-Natal: Wetter Than Normal for Coastal Areas
In KwaZulu-Natal, coastal and near-coastal districts such as eThekwini, Ugu, and Umgungundlovu are expected to see above-normal rainfall well into early spring. This could support pastures and late-planted crops. However, higher-than-usual temperatures may reduce the benefits of this rain by increasing evaporation.
Free State: Cold Nights, Dry Soils
The Free State lies firmly in the interior’s dry winter zone, and this year is no exception. SAWS forecasts below-normal rainfall across the province through the winter. Although the province may still experience cold overnight temperatures, overall warmth during the day will dominate. Veld conditions will likely deteriorate, and farmers should plan for limited natural grazing and possible increased feed supplementation for livestock.
Gauteng: Warm and Dry
Farmers in Gauteng—which includes high-density urban agriculture as well as peri-urban and subsistence farmers—can expect a warmer and drier-than-normal winter. While frost risk might be reduced in some areas, the lack of rainfall and increasing heat will strain water resources, especially in informal irrigation systems.
North West Province: High Fire Risk and Feed Pressure
Like much of the interior, North West will see below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures. This creates ideal conditions for veld fires, especially in open grazing zones. Farmers should manage grazing intensity and establish or maintain firebreaks around key infrastructure and livestock zones.
Limpopo: Dry and Hot Winter Ahead
Limpopo, a summer rainfall region, typically receives minimal winter rain, and the forecast remains consistent with that pattern. This winter, conditions are expected to be drier and warmer than usual, raising irrigation and livestock water demands. Crop farmers in areas like Mopani and Vhembe should delay any off-season planting and focus on moisture conservation.
Mpumalanga: Ongoing Drought and Dry Outlook
Parts of Mpumalanga remain under drought pressure, and unfortunately, this winter is unlikely to offer relief. The province is set to experience above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall, with continued stress on both water and soil resources. Farmers in districts such as Nkangala and Ehlanzeni should be particularly alert to livestock stress, fire hazards, and irrigation limitations.
Northern Cape: Extreme Dryness in the West
For the Northern Cape, especially the Namakwa and Pixley ka Seme regions, this winter brings dry and very warm conditions, raising concerns about veld degradation and water availability. The lack of rainfall during the cold season is typical, but this year, above-normal temperatures may accelerate pasture depletion and increase the risk of dust storms and respiratory hazards.
Agricultural Risks and Considerations
With most of the country experiencing above-normal temperatures, heat stress and water loss are critical concerns. In dry zones, veld fires, grazing shortages, and stock water stress will be key risks. Meanwhile, wetter coastal areas should stay alert for flood-prone soils, vector-borne diseases, and moisture-related crop issues.
General Advice from SAWS
SAWS urges all farmers to:
- Monitor weekly and monthly climate updates.
- Adjust planting, grazing, and irrigation plans accordingly.
- Collaborate with local agricultural extension officers and fire management units.
A Divided Winter Demands Localised Strategy
This winter, South Africa’s agricultural landscape is split: some regions will benefit from timely rain, while others face a test of resilience under warm and dry skies. With smart, location-specific planning, farmers can adapt to these conditions and protect their production and livelihoods.
For updates and tools, visit SAWS at www.weathersa.co.za.