The clock is ticking for South Africa’s citrus growers. With the 90-day pause on new US tariffs set to expire on 9 July 2025, the industry is in a “crucial week,” as described by Dr. Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA). If a 30% tariff is reinstated, it will be a “crucial blow,” particularly for Western Cape growers in the middle of their season.
The Elephant in the Room: AGOA and Tariffs
For years, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) provided duty-free access for South African citrus, fostering a lucrative export program that ships around 100,000 tonnes annually to the US. This trade sustains large rural communities. However, analysts now widely believe the AGOA deal is “probably dead and buried.” This, coupled with the impending 30% tariff, presents an existential threat.
The CGA has consistently warned that this tariff will make South African citrus uncompetitive, given that competitors from South America face only a 10% baseline tariff. Gerrit van der Merwe, CGA Chairman, highlights the severe human cost, warning of potential job losses (estimated at 35,000 in South Africa) and economic instability in heavily dependent towns like Citrusdal.
Awaiting Engagement, Seeking Solutions
A South African delegation presented a trade package to the US in May, and the industry is now “await[ing] further engagement from the US towards trade talks.” The hope is for a new deal or an extension of current arrangements before the deadline. Dr. Ntshabele confirmed “considerable doubt about the renewal of AGOA,” noting the US’s preference for bilateral frameworks.
Diversifying Amidst Uncertainty
Despite the US focus, the CGA is also exploring other markets. Dr. Ntshabele pointed to China’s recent offer of duty-free access for African countries and ongoing citrus promotions in India. While India presents opportunities, “high tariffs… continue to be a serious hurdle.” The CGA emphasises the need for urgent government action on all fronts, as the substantial US volumes “cannot be easily absorbed elsewhere at such short notice.”
With the bulk of the South African mandarin and orange season still ahead, any upward tariff adjustment will be “extremely damaging.” The industry, and the communities it supports, are collectively holding their breath as 9 July rapidly approaches.